Mortgage Rates Market Update: Fortress Mortgage Advisors | Week of February 13, 2026

Markets continued to find their footing this week as interest rates hovered near multi-year lows, even as new labor and consumer data delivered mixed signals. Strong job growth reinforced the economy’s underlying resilience, while softer retail spending and rising oil prices helped temper inflation expectations. Let’s break down what moved markets—and what could matter most in the days ahead.

A Look Into the Markets

This past week, interest rates continued to hover near multi-year lows in the face of important labor market and consumer spending news. Let’s discuss what happened and peek into the big week ahead.

Jobs Report: Benchmark Revisions & January Strength

Wednesday’s official Jobs Report included a larger-than-expected benchmark revision and something we’ve seen year after year when prior data gets recalibrated. This has been a recurring theme going back through 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. The backward look often tells a different story than the initial headlines. January, however, showed clear strength. Headline payrolls rose 130,000; roughly double expectations. Under the surface, private sector hiring surged 172,000, nearly three times forecasts, offset by a 42,000 decline in government jobs.

The Household Survey reinforced the strength:

• More people employed

• Fewer unemployed

• Labor force participation increased

• Unemployment rate fell to 4.3%

• Hourly earnings rose above expectations

Markets, which are forward-looking, embraced the good news. Stocks climbed and rates edged higher on signs the labor market remains durable.

One month doesn’t make a trend, but should we see similar readings in future months, it will be a big positive for the overall economy and housing.

From Renting to Owning: Turning Monthly Payments Into Long-Term Opportunity

If you’re currently renting, market conditions like today’s matter more than you might think. Stable rates, improving affordability, and flexible loan options are opening doors for renters who assumed homeownership was still out of reach.

Owning a home isn’t just about buying property — it’s about building equity, creating predictable housing costs, and investing in your future instead of your landlord’s.

Whether you’re early in the process or just starting to explore what’s possible, understanding your options is the first step. Explore your path from renter to owner: View Our Renters-to-Owners Guide.

Retail Sales Miss

Retail Sales, along with details on what consumers are purchasing, came in below expectations. That softer spending data helped offset the optimism from the Jobs Report and reminded markets that the consumer may not be accelerating. Seeing that consumer spending makes up 70% of our economy and should retail sales suffer further in the future, it will weigh on economic growth…the opposite is true.

Oil Drifting Higher

Oil prices have been pushing higher ($65 a barrel), adding another layer of pressure to the rate conversation. Rising crude is typically driven by a combination of supply constraints and steady global demand, and when energy costs climb, they ripple quickly through transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods.

That feeds into inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are a primary driver of bond yields. If oil prices fail to retreat, markets will begin pricing in the risk of stickier inflation, which can keep upward pressure on the 10-year Note yield and, ultimately, mortgage rates. Energy doesn’t just impact the pump, it influences Fed policy expectations and rate direction.

Resistance Becomes Support

Technically, the 10-year yield moved back beneath 4.20%. What had been a yield “floor” limiting rate improvement is now acting as a ceiling; resistance that is helping cap rate increases. That is important to follow as it may lead to the 10-year revisiting the next floor of yield support at 4.00%.

30-Year Mortgage Rates and 10-Year Note

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (Freddie Mac daily average, February 12, 2026)

• Rate: ~6.09% (current average 30-year fixed rate)

• Change from previous week: modestly down from ~6.11% (week ended February 5, 2026)

• Change year-over-year: down from ~6.87% on February 13, 2025 (Freddie Mac)

10-Year Treasury Note Yield (daily close, February 12, 2026)

• Yield: 4.12%

• Change from previous week: down from ~4.21% last week (week ended February 5, 2026)

• Change year-over-year: down from ~4.63% on February 12, 2025

Looking Ahead: Big Data Week

Next week is packed with potential market movers. The first estimate of fourth quarter 2025 GDP is expected to come in north of 3.00%; a surprisingly strong pace of growth, especially considering the government was shut down for more than 40 days during the quarter. If confirmed, it reinforces the narrative of an economy that continues to show resilience despite headwinds.

On Wednesday, we’ll also get the Fed Minutes from the January meeting. Markets will be combing through the language for any shift in tone on inflation, growth, or future rate policy. Even subtle wording changes can move both stocks and bonds.

Note: with only a few more Fed Meetings left for Jerome Powell, the markets may pay less attention to these Minutes and will rather focus on what Kevin Warsh (nominated for Fed Chair) says about monetary policy and the economy.

Finally, we close the week with Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. This report carries weight because it’s the gauge policymakers focus on most closely. If inflation shows signs of firming, rates could feel pressure. If it continues to moderate, it could reinforce the recent ceiling forming in yields.

Mortgage Market Guide Candlestick Chart

Each candle represents one day of trading. As mortgage bond prices move higher, rates move lower. On the right side of the chart, mortgage bond prices continue to trade near three-year highs, translating to three year lows in mortgage rates.

Chart: Fannie Mae 30-Year 5.0% Coupon (Friday, February 13, 2026)

Economic Calendar for the Week of February 16 - 20

With mortgage rates holding near three-year lows and the 10-year Treasury showing signs of technical support, this remains an important period to watch closely. The week ahead brings key data—GDP, Fed Minutes, and Core PCE—that could help determine whether rates remain contained or begin to feel upward pressure.

As always, understanding how these economic signals translate into real-world financing options can make a meaningful difference. Staying informed today helps you make more confident decisions in a shifting market environment.

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As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.

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